LeftOut

"Sanchez for Governor"
Why Republicans are nervous and Democrats are cautiously optimistic
by Daryl Moore

With Republicans holding every statewide office in Texas, most would think it’s a bad time to be a Democrat in Texas. Not me. I think it’s a great time to be a Democrat in Texas. To fully appreciate the possibilities of what Democrats might do in next year’s November elections, consider the recent Houston mayor’s race.

Just last month, Orlando Sanchez–an incredibly conservative Republican in a largely Democratic city–came within a few points of pulling off a major political upset that would have been a feather in the Republican Party’s cap and the first nail in the Democratic Party’s coffin. Both parties know that their political destiny lies largely in the hands of the fastest-growing voting bloc in the nation–Hispanics.

That’s why both national parties poured money into a local city election. That’s why George and Barbara Bush appeared in an ad with Sanchez. And, that’s why former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani taped an ad for a candidate he doesn’t even know.

Republicans are scared. They realize that if they are to keep their iron grip on Texas politics, they are going to have to make inroads into the Hispanic community. In Orlando Sanchez, Republicans saw an opportunity to finally put an Hispanic-friendly face on a party that is so institutionally xenophobic that its platform seeks the "immediate adoption of American English as the official language of Texas." (Do Spanish-speaking Hispanics really pose a greater threat to the King’s English than native Texans do?)

Now, even though Sanchez lost, Republicans are saying that his close finish indicates they really are making inroads into the Hispanic community. They point to the fact that the number of Hispanic voters from the last mayoral election–when Brown defeated Rob Mosbacher and carried a majority of the Hispanic vote–doubled. They brag that this time, Brown only got 25 percent of the Hispanic vote. Sanchez got 75 percent.

What the Republicans ignore, however, is that while Sanchez did get 75 percent of the Hispanic vote, Brown got 98 percent of the African-American vote. In other words, if the Hispanic community had stood behind Sanchez like the African-American community stood behind Brown, ex-council member Sanchez would be Mayor Sanchez. The problem for Republicans is that 25 percent of the Hispanic community is so solidly Democratic that they refused to support an Hispanic candidate who is a Republican.

And that’s what spells trouble for the Republican Party in Texas. Next fall, there will be another Sanchez on the ballot. This time, the Sanchez will be named Tony. And, this time, the Sanchez will be a Democrat.

If Hispanic voters across the state turn out next November like they did in the Houston mayor’s race, Governor Rick Perry will be in trouble. Because instead of carrying 75 percent of the Hispanic vote as Orlando Sanchez did, this Sanchez could carry more than 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. If that happens, the Democrats can take back the governorship as well as other statewide offices.

Republicans say they’re not worried. They point to Governor Perry’s approval ratings, which are hovering around 60 percent. And, they point to preliminary polls, which show Perry has a 30-point lead over Sanchez (48 to 18 percent, with 34 percent undecided).

Republicans should not be so comfortable with these numbers. After all, when George Bush ran against Ann Richards, Richards had 60 percent approval ratings and a 30-point lead over Dubya just 10 months before the election. We all know how that turned out.

2002 just might turn out to be an okay year to be a Democrat in Texas. It’s about time.